Analysis: A worrisome poll number for Donald Trump


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CNN
 — 

Donald Trump is running for president. But according to a new Quinnipiac University national poll, a whole lot of people wish he wasn’t.

Nearly 6 in 10 Americans (57%) said it is a bad thing that Trump is running again, while just 34% said it is a good thing.

Trump’s numbers among Democrats on that question are, not surprisingly, awful, with 88% saying it is a bad thing that he launched a 2024 White House campaign.

But that’s not what should worry Trump. It’s his numbers among independents (58% said him running is a bad thing) and even among Republicans (27% said it is a bad thing) that should be of concern to the former president.

The simple fact made plain by Quinnipiac’s poll is that there is a sizable chunk of the public – and not just Democrats – who believe that another Trump presidential bid is a bad idea for the country.

And that’s far from the only negative takeaway from Trump in the poll. There are several data points suggesting that Republicans are not only open to a White House run from Ron DeSantis, but that the Florida governor poses a real threat to Trump.

Six in 10 Republicans said they would like to see DeSantis run for president, while roughly one-quarter said they didn’t.

When asked who they prefer win the 2024 GOP nomination, 44% of Republicans picked DeSantis – the same percentage who chose Trump.

Now, this is one poll. But the data is the data. And what the data suggests is that Trump would not only be a weakened general election candidate (those numbers among independents are, um, not good), but also that there is room in the Republican field for someone other than the former president.

As CNN’s Harry Enten wrote recently of Trump:

“He does remain a force to be reckoned with in GOP circles, and the news that the Justice Department has appointed a special counsel to oversee investigations related to the former president could elicit a rally-around-Trump effect among Republicans. Nevertheless, it’s clear his power within the party has diminished following the 2022 midterm elections.”

All true! And all concerning for the Trump loyalists who want to see him as their party’s 2024 nominee.

The Point: Trump remains the frontrunner in the 2024 Republican field. But his grip on the party – and the country – has clearly loosened.



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